The effectiveness of financial incentives for COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review.

Financial incentives are a controversial strategy for increasing vaccination. In this systematic review, we evaluated: 1) the effects of incentives on COVID-19 vaccinations; 2) whether effects differed based on study outcome, study design, incentive type and timing, or sample sociodemographic characteristics; and 3) the cost of incentives per additional vaccine administered. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Econlit up to March 2022 for terms related to COVID, vaccines, and financial incentives, and identified 38 peer-reviewed, quantitative studies. Independent raters extracted study data and evaluated study quality. Studies examined the impact of financial incentives on COVID-19 vaccine uptake (k = 18), related psychological outcomes (e.g., vaccine intentions, k = 19), or both types of outcomes. For studies of vaccine uptake, none found that financial incentives had a negative effect on uptake, and most rigorous studies found that incentives had a positive effect on uptake. By contrast, studies of vaccine intentions were inconclusive. While three studies concluded that incentives may negatively impact vaccine intentions for some individuals, they had methodological limitations. Study outcomes (uptake versus intentions) and study design (experimental versus observational frameworks) appeared to influence results more than incentive type or timing. Additionally, income and political affiliation may moderate responses to incentives. Most studies evaluating cost per additional vaccine administered found that they ranged from $49-75. Overall, fears about financial incentives decreasing COVID-19 vaccine uptake are not supported by the evidence. Financial incentives likely increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake. While these increases appear to be small, they may be meaningful across populations. Registration: PROSPERO, CRD42022316086 (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022316086).

Comparative effectiveness of mandates and financial policies targeting COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: A randomized, controlled survey experiment.

Experts debate whether COVID-19 vaccine mandates or financial incentives will reduce, rather than increase, interest in vaccination. Among 3,698 unvaccinated U.S. residents, we conducted a randomized, controlled survey-embedded experiment to estimate the absolute and relative psychological effects of vaccine policies specifying: mandates by employers or airlines, bars, and restaurants; lotteries for $1 million, $200,000, or $100,000; guaranteed cash for $1000, $200, or $100; and $1,000 as either a tax credit or penalty. Vaccine intention -the study outcome- predicts uptake and provides insight into the psychological mechanism that is most proximal to behavior (i.e., vaccination). Compared to controls, those who learned about the $1,000 cash reward policy were 17.1 (±5.3)% more likely to want vaccination. Employer mandates are more promising than other mandate policies (8.6 [+/- 7.4]% vs. 1.4 [+/- 6.0]%). The full results suggest that neither mandates nor financial incentives are likely to have counterproductive psychological effects. These policies are not mutually exclusive and, if implemented well, they may increase vaccine uptake.

Disease prevention efforts on Welsh cattle farms are influenced by farm demographics.

BACKGROUND: This research seeks to understand how the transition to a new generation of younger, more diverse farmers affects disease prevention efforts on UK farms. METHODS: We apply multivariate regression analysis to analyse survey responses from 112 Welsh cattle farm operators. RESULTS: Our results indicate that young farm operators (less than 40 years of age) receive less frequent visits from veterinarians. Further, farm operators who identify as female are less likely to screen and vaccinate against a range of diseases. Finally, both young farmers and female farm operators are less likely to achieve disease-free certification for various economically meaningful livestock diseases. CONCLUSION: One possible explanation for these outcomes is that female farm operators and young farmers may feel excluded from long-standing social networks in the farm animal health sector.

Atomic force microscopy for quantitative understanding of peptide-induced lipid bilayer remodeling.

A number of peptides are known to bind lipid bilayer membranes and cause these natural barriers to leak in an uncontrolled manner. Though membrane permeabilizing peptides play critical roles in cellular activity and may have promising future applications in the therapeutic arena, significant questions remain about their mechanisms of action. The atomic force microscope (AFM) is a single molecule imaging tool capable of addressing lipid bilayers in near-native fluid conditions. The apparatus complements traditional assays by providing local topographic maps of bilayer remodeling induced by membrane permeabilizing peptides. The information garnered from the AFM includes direct visualization and statistical analyses of distinct bilayer remodeling modes such as highly localized pore-like voids in the bilayer and dispersed thinned membrane regions. Colocalization of distinct remodeling modes can be studied. Here we examine recent work in the field and outline methods used to achieve precise AFM image data. Experimental challenges and common pitfalls are discussed as well as techniques for unbiased analysis including the Hessian blob detection algorithm, bootstrapping, and the Bayesian information criterion. When coupled with robust statistical analyses, high precision AFM data is poised to advance understanding of an important family of peptides that cause poration of membrane bilayers.

The economic value of genetically engineered mosquitoes as a malaria control strategy depends on local transmission rates.

This paper assesses the economic value of genetically engineered (GE) Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes as a malaria control strategy. We use an epidemiological-economic model of malaria transmission to evaluate this technology for a range of village-level transmission settings. In each setting, we evaluate public health outcomes following introduction of GE mosquitoes relative to a "status quo" baseline scenario. We also assess results both in contrast to-and in combination with-a Mass Drug Administration (MDA) strategy. We find that-in low transmission settings-the present value (PV) public health benefits of GE mosquito release are substantial, both relative to status quo dynamics and MDA. In contrast, in high transmission settings, the release of GE mosquitoes may increase steady-state infection rates. Our results indicate that there are substantial policy complementarities when GE mosquito release is combined with local MDA-the combined control strategy can lead to local eradication.

COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in U.S. meatpacking counties.

In this paper, we investigate the extent to which the presence of a large meatpacking (i.e., beef, pork, and broiler chicken) plant has affected county-level COVID-19 transmission dynamics. We find that-within 150 days after emergence of COVID-19 in a given county-the presence of a large beef packing facility increases per capita infection rates by 110%, relative to comparable counties without meatpacking plants. Large pork and chicken processing facilities increase transmission rates by 160% and 20%, respectively. While the presence of this type of industrial agricultural facility is shown to exacerbate initial disease transmission affecting large numbers of individuals in the community, over time daily case rates converge such that rates observed in meatpacking- and non-meatpacking counties become similar. In aggregate, results suggest that 334 thousand COVID-19 infections are attributable to meatpacking plants in the U.S. with associated mortality and morbidity costs totaling more than $11.2 billion.

Are vaccine lotteries worth the money?

This research evaluates the effects of the twelve statewide vaccine lottery schemes that were announced as of June 7, 2021 on state vaccination rates. We construct a dataset that matches information on the timing and location of these lotteries with daily, county-level data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on the cumulative number of people who have received at least one dose of an emergency-authorized Covid-19 vaccine. We find that 10 of the 12 statewide lotteries studied (i.e., all but Arkansas and California) generated a positive, statistically significant, and economically meaningful impact on vaccine uptake after thirty days. On average, the cost per marginal vaccination across these programs was approximately $55.

Unscrambling U.S. egg supply chains amid COVID-19.

This article investigates how the shift from food-away-from-home and towards food-at-home at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the U.S. egg industry. We find that the pandemic increased retail and farm-gate prices for table eggs by approximately 141% and 182%, respectively. In contrast, prices for breaking stock eggs-which are primarily used in foodservice and restaurants-fell by 67%. On April 3, 2020, the FDA responded by issuing temporary exemptions from certain food safety standards for breaking stock egg producers seeking to sell into the retail table egg market. We find that this regulatory change rapidly pushed retail, farm-gate, and breaking stock prices towards their long-run pre-pandemic equilibrium dynamics. The pandemic reduced premiums for credence attributes, including cage-free, vegetarian-fed, and organic eggs, by as much as 34%. These premiums did not fully recover following the return to more "normal" price dynamics, possibly signaling that willingness-to-pay for animal welfare and environmental sustainability have fallen as consumers seek to meet basic needs during the pandemic. Finally, in spite of widespread claims of price gouging, we do not find that the pandemic (or the subsequent FDA regulatory changes) had a meaningful impact on the marketing margin for table eggs sold at grocery stores.

Indemnifying precaution: economic insights for regulation of a highly infectious disease.

Economic insights are powerful for understanding the challenge of managing a highly infectious disease, such as COVID-19, through behavioral precautions including social distancing. One problem is a form of moral hazard, which arises when some individuals face less personal risk of harm or bear greater personal costs of taking precautions. Without legal intervention, some individuals will see socially risky behaviors as personally less costly than socially beneficial behaviors, a balance that makes those beneficial behaviors unsustainable. For insights, we review health insurance moral hazard, agricultural infectious disease policy, and deterrence theory, but find that classic enforcement strategies of punishing noncompliant people are stymied. One mechanism is for policymakers to indemnify individuals for losses associated with taking those socially desirable behaviors to reduce the spread. We develop a coherent approach for doing so, based on conditional cash payments and precommitments by citizens, which may also be reinforced by social norms.

The effects of anthracycline drugs on the conformational distribution of mouse P-glycoprotein explains their transport rate differences.

P-glycoprotein (Pgp) is an ATP-dependent efflux transporter and plays a major role in anti-cancer drug resistance by pumping a chemically diverse range of cytotoxic drugs from cancerous tumors. Despite numerous studies with the transporter, the molecular features that drive anti-cancer drug efflux are not well understood. Even subtle differences in the anti-cancer drug molecular structure can lead to dramatic differences in their transport rates. To unmask these structural differences, this study focused on two closely-related anthracycline drugs, daunorubicin (DNR), and doxorubicin (DOX), with mouse Pgp. While only differing by a single hydroxyl functional group, DNR has a 4 to 5-fold higher transport rate than DOX. They both non-competitively inhibited Pgp-mediated ATP hydrolysis below basal levels. The Km of Pgp-mediated ATP hydrolysis extracted from the kinetics curves was lower for DOX than DNR. However, the dissociation constants (KDs) for these drugs determined by fluorescence quenching were virtually identical. Acrylamide quenching of Pgp tryptophan fluorescence to probe the tertiary structure of Pgp suggested that DNR shifts Pgp to a "closed" conformation, while DOX shifts Pgp to an "intermediate" conformation. The effects of these drugs on the Pgp conformational distributions in a lipid bilayer were also examined by atomic force microscopy (AFM). Analysis of AFM images revealed that DNR and DOX cause distinct and significant shifts in the conformational distribution of Pgp. The results were combined to build a conformational distribution model for anthracycline transport by Pgp.

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions.

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative land uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.

Patterns of correlation of facial shape with physiological measurements are more integrated than patterns of correlation with ratings.

This article exploits a method recently incorporated in the geometric morphometric toolkit that complements previous approaches to quantifying the facial features associated with specific body characteristics and trait attribution during social perception. The new method differentiates more globally encoded from more locally encoded information by a summary scaling dimension that is estimated by fitting a line to the plot of log bending energy against log variance explained, partial warp by partial warp, for some sample of varying shapes. In the present context these variances come from the regressions of shape on some exogenous cause or effect of form. We work an example involving data from male faces. Here the regression slopes are steepest, and the sums of explained variances over the uniform component, partial warp 1 and partial warp 2 are greatest, for the conventional body mass index, followed by cortisol and, lastly, perceived health. This suggests that physiological characteristics may be represented at larger scale (global patterns), whereas cues in perception are of smaller scale (local patterns). Such a polarity within psychomorphospace, the global versus the focal, now has a metric by which patterns of morphology can be modeled in both biological and psychological studies.

Estimating active layer thickness and volumetric water content from ground penetrating radar measurements in Barrow, Alaska.

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has emerged as an effective tool for estimating active layer thickness (ALT) and volumetric water content (VWC) within the active layer. In August 2013, we conducted a series of GPR and probing surveys using a 500 MHz antenna and metallic probe around Barrow, Alaska. We collected about 15 km of GPR data and 1.5 km of probing data. Here, we describe the GPR data processing workflow from raw GPR data to the estimated ALT and VWC. We include the corresponding uncertainties for each measured and estimated parameter. The estimated average GPR-derived ALT was 41 cm, with a standard deviation of 9 cm. The average probed ALT was 40 cm, with a standard deviation of 12 cm. The average GPR-derived VWC was 0.65, with a standard deviation of 0.14.

Population assessment of tropical tuna based on their associative behavior around floating objects.

Estimating the abundance of pelagic fish species is a challenging task, due to their vast and remote habitat. Despite the development of satellite, archival and acoustic tagging techniques that allow the tracking of marine animals in their natural environments, these technologies have so far been underutilized in developing abundance estimations. We developed a new method for estimating the abundance of tropical tuna that employs these technologies and exploits the aggregative behavior of tuna around floating objects (FADs). We provided estimates of abundance indices based on a simulated set of tagged fish and studied the sensitivity of our method to different association dynamics, FAD numbers, population sizes and heterogeneities of the FAD-array. Taking the case study of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) acoustically-tagged in Hawaii, we implemented our approach on field data and derived for the first time the ratio between the associated and the total population. With more extensive and long-term monitoring of FAD-associated tunas and good estimates of the numbers of fish at FADs, our method could provide fisheries-independent estimates of populations of tropical tuna. The same approach can be applied to obtain population assessments for any marine and terrestrial species that display associative behavior and from which behavioral data have been acquired using acoustic, archival or satellite tags.

Evidence of discrete yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) populations demands rethink of management for this globally important resource.

Tropical tuna fisheries are central to food security and economic development of many regions of the world. Contemporary population assessment and management generally assume these fisheries exploit a single mixed spawning population, within ocean basins. To date population genetics has lacked the required power to conclusively test this assumption. Here we demonstrate heterogeneous population structure among yellowfin tuna sampled at three locations across the Pacific Ocean (western, central, and eastern) via analysis of double digest restriction-site associated DNA using Next Generation Sequencing technology. The differences among locations are such that individuals sampled from one of the three regions examined can be assigned with close to 100% accuracy demonstrating the power of this approach for providing practical markers for fishery independent verification of catch provenance in a way not achieved by previous techniques. Given these results, an extended pan-tropical survey of yellowfin tuna using this approach will not only help combat the largest threat to sustainable fisheries (i.e. illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing) but will also provide a basis to transform current monitoring, assessment, and management approaches for this globally significant species.

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C(-1) on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Enteric bacterial protein AvrA promotes colonic tumorigenesis and activates colonic beta-catenin signaling pathway.

Salmonella infections can become chronic and increase the risk of cancer. The mechanisms by which specific Salmonella organisms contribute to cancer, however, are still unknown. Live and attenuated Salmonella are used as vectors to target cancer cells, but there have been no systematic studies of the oncogenic potential of chronic Salmonella infections in cancer models. AvrA, a pathogenic product of Salmonella, is inserted into host cells during infection and influences eukaryotic cell pathways. In the current study, we colonized mice with Salmonella AvrA-sufficient or AvrA-deficient Salmonella typhimirium strains and induced inflammation-associated colon cancer by azoxymethane/dextran sulfate sodium (AOM/DSS). We confirmed Salmonella persisted in the colon for up to 45 weeks. Salmonella was identified not only in epithelial cells on the colonic luminal surface and base of the crypts but also in invading tumors. Tumor incidence in the AvrA+infected group was 100% compared with 51.4% in the AOM/DSS group without bacterial gavage and 56.3% in mice infected with the AvrA- strain. Infection with AvrA+ strain also altered tumor distribution from the distal to proximal colon that might reflect changes in the microbiome. AvrA-expressing bacteria also upregulated beta-catenin signaling as assessed by decreased beta-catenin ubiquitination, increased nuclear beta-catenin and increased phosphorylated-beta-catenin (Ser552), a marker of proliferating stem-progenitor cells. Other ß-catenin targets increased by AvrA included Bmi1, a cancer stem cell marker, matrix metalloproteinase-7, and cyclin D1. In summary, AvrA-expressing Salmonella infection activates ß-catenin signals and enhances colonic tumorigenesis. Our findings provide important new mechanistic insights into how a bacterial protein targets proliferating stem-progenitor cells and contributes to cancer development. Our observations also raise a note of caution regarding the use of mutant Salmonella organisms as vectors for anti-cancer therapy. Finally, these studies could suggest biomarkers (such as AvrA level in gut) to assess cancer risk in susceptible individuals and infection-related dysregulation of ß-catenin signaling in cancer.

Hammersmith Functional Motor Scale and Motor Function Measure-20 in non ambulant SMA patients.

The aim of this prospective longitudinal multi centric study was to evaluate the correlation between the Hammersmith Functional Motor Scale and the 20 item version of the Motor Function Measure in non ambulant SMA children and adults at baseline and over a 12 month period. Seventy-four non-ambulant patients performed both measures at baseline and 49 also had an assessment 12 month later. At baseline the scores ranged between 0 and 40 on the Hammersmith Motor function Scale and between 3 and 45 on the Motor Function Measure 20. The correlation between the two scales was 0.733. The 12 month changes ranged between -11 and 4 for the Hammersmith and between -11 and 7 for the Motor Function Measure 20. The correlation between changes was 0.48. Our results suggest that both scales provide useful information although they appeared to work differently at the two extremes of the spectrum of abilities. The Hammersmith Motor Function Scale appeared to be more suitable in strong non ambulant patients, while the Motor Function Measures appeared to be more sensitive to capture activities and possible changes in the very weak patients, including more items capturing axial and upper limb activities. The choice of these measures in clinical trials should therefore depend on inclusion criteria and magnitude of expected changes.

High STEAP1 expression is associated with improved outcome of Ewing's sarcoma patients.

BACKGROUND: Ewing's sarcoma (ES) is the second most common bone or soft-tissue sarcoma in childhood and adolescence and features a high propensity to metastasize. The six-transmembrane epithelial antigen of the prostate 1 (STEAP1) is a membrane-bound mesenchymal stem cell marker highly expressed in ES. Here, we investigated the role of STEAP1 as an immunohistological marker for outcome prediction in patients with ES. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Membranous STEAP1 immunoreactivity was analyzed using immunohistochemistry in 114 primary pre-chemotherapy ES of patients diagnosed from 1983 to 2010 and compared with clinical parameters and patient outcome. Median follow-up was 3.85 years (range 0.43-17.51). RESULTS: A total of 62.3% of the ES samples displayed detectable STEAP1 expression with predominant localization of the protein at the plasma membrane. High membranous STEAP1 immunoreactivity was found in 53.5%, which correlated with better overall survival (P=0.021). Accordingly, no or low membranous STEAP1 expression was identified as an independent risk factor in multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 2.65, P=0.036). CONCLUSION: High membranous STEAP1 expression predicts improved outcome and may help to define a specific subgroup of ES patients, who might benefit from adapted therapy regimens.